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Project Proposal Request for FY 2007 - FY 2009 Funding

Proposal 199105100: M&E Statistical Support For Life-Cycle Studies

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Table of Contents
Part 1. Administration and Budgeting
Section 1: General Administrative
Section 2: Project Location
Section 3: Project Species
Section 4: Past Accomplishments
Section 5: Relationship to Other Projects
Section 6: Biological Objectives
Section 7: Work Elements
Section 8: Budget
Section 9: Project Future
Section 10: Documents
Part 2. Reviews
Part 1 of 2. Administration and Budgeting
Section 1: General Administrative Information
Process Information:
Date Proposal Submitted & Finalized Status Form Generator
January 10, 2006 Finalized John Skalski
Proposal Type: Ongoing
Proposal Number: 199105100
Proposal Name: M&E Statistical Support For Life-Cycle Studies
BPA Project Manager: John Piccininni
Agency, Institution or Organization: University of Washington
Short Description: Develop statistical methods for monitoring and evaluating salmonid recovery plans. Provide added-value analyses and statistical support on regional fisheries issues. Provide smolt migration timing predictions on the internet.
Information Transfer: This project supports the need to have the "best available" scientific information accessible to the BPA, fisheries community, decision-makers, and public by analyzing historical tagging data to investigate smolt outmigration dynamics, salmonid life histories and productivity, and providing real-time analysis to monitor outmigration timing for use in water management and fish operations of the hydrosystem. To support real-time monitoring and provide information dissemination, the project provides real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing at 10 Snake and Columbia River dam sites. This information is coupled with travel time information and barging predictions in the Snake River Basin. Daily updates are provided for yearling and subyearling chinook, steelhead, and sockeye from April through September of each year since 1994. These predictions, along with supporting information, can be retrieved and independently analyzed using interactive software and graphs on the internet. This project also provides value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and investigating interrelationships without the tremendous costs of additional field studies. Finally, this project provides statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community on an as-needed bassis. These efforts are used to provide BPA with independent assessment capabilities and provide technology transfer to regional investigators. Technology transfer also includes (a) peer-reviewed publications, (b) BPA technical reports, (c) graduate student theses and dissertations, (c) statistical consulting and guidance, and (d) presentations and workshops.
 
Project Proposal Contacts
Contact Organization Address Phone/Email Roles Notes
Form Submitter
John Skalski University of Washington 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
Seattle, WA 98101-2509		 Ph: 206.685.1995
Fax: 206.616.7452
Email: jrs@cbr.washington.edu		 Form Submitter
All Assigned Contacts
Cindy Helfrich University of Washington 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
Seattle, WA 98101-2509		 Ph: 206 685-1995
Fax: 206 616-7452
Email: cindy@cbr.washington.edu		 Administrative Contact
John Skalski University of Washington 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
Seattle, WA 98101-2509		 Ph: 206.685.1995
Fax: 206.616.7452
Email: jrs@cbr.washington.edu		 Project Lead
Rich Townsend University of Washington 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
Seattle, WA 98101-2509		 Ph: (206) 616-7492
Fax: (206) 616-7452
Email: rich@u.washington.edu		 Technical Contact
Section 2: Project Location
Sponsor Province: Mainstem/Systemwide ARG Province: No Change
Sponsor Subbasin: Systemwide ARG Subbasin: No Change
Location(s) at which the action will be implemented
Latitude Longitude Waterbody Location Description County/State Subbasin Primary?
No Locations Entered
Section 3: Focal Species
Focal Species:
Primary Secondary Additional Species
All Anadromous Salmonids
Section 4: Past Accomplishments
Past Accomplishments for Each Fiscal Year of This Project
Fiscal Year Accomplishments
2005 Updated CWT estimates of smolt-to-adult ratios for 90 Columbia Basin hatcheries, and smolt survivals and travel times for 20 hatchery stocks. Developed interactive database of performance measures for user-specified summaries on status and trends.
2004 Developed webpage on adult fallback rates of salmonids at Bonneville Dam using PIT-tag data. Compiled historical information on annual flows (since 1950s) and dissolved gas levels (since mid-1980s) and performance compliance at 10 Columbia Basin dams.
2003 Completed compilation of smolt travel time and survival estimates from PIT-tag releases, mid-1990s to 2002. Compiled adult escapement data and associated NOAA interim recovery goals for 24 stocks and tributaries in the Columbia Basin.
2002 Compiled estimates and standard errors on smolt-to-adult ratios using CWT recoveries for 90 Columbia Basin hatcheries from the 1970s to the present. Improved anaIytical data on DART. Assisted NMFS in developing multidimensional decision rules.
2001 Evaluated proposed statistical tests for recovery in the NMFS RPA based on annual estimates of smolt survival. Examined statistical bias of treatment/control return numbers and developed bias-corrected estimators.
2000 Completed synthesis and comparison of smolt survival estimates generated with different technologies and experimental protocols. Assessed efficiency of adult PIT-tag detection facilities at BON on transportation evaluation and ocean survival estimates.
1999 Assessed with USGS the feasibility of using hatchery rearing information to evaluate smolt quality and subsequent downriver migration performance. Assessed validity of using Rice Island PIT-tag recoveries in estimating smolt survival through Bonneville.
1998 Studied relationships between coho age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions. Assessed internal consistency of hydroacoustics, PIT-tag, and balloon-tag studies in explaining LGR project survival for smolts.
1997 Studied effects of river pulsing on smolt travel times, estimation of fish guidance efficiency and spill effectiveness from PIT-tag data, and estimation of season-wide survival rates and smolt growth rates. Added Redfish Lake salmonids to RealTime.
1996 Internet access expanded to include historical run-timing and flow data at all major hydroprojects and in-season PIT detections for NMFS Snake River ESUs passing through hydroprojects. Program RealTime linked with CRiSP model (Project 8910800).
1995 Expanded RealTime Passage Index Forecaster to predict outmigration timing of summer/fall runs of juvenile subyearling chinook at Lower Granite Dam based on FPC passage indices. Recommended on statisticals models for transportation benefit analyses.
1994 Developed and tested Program RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software using pattern recognition and neuronets to predict outmigration timing of summer/fall runs of juvenile subyearling chinook at Lower Granite Dam in real time.
1993 Report on adult PIT-tag returns. Results showed annual patterns of adult returns differed across years even for closely related river systems.
1992 Report on "strawman" smolt montioring design for the Snake/Columbia river systems. This strawman became the conceptual design for the existing PIT-tag detection system for the Snake River.
1991 Report on historical brand release data for the Snake River. Report identified serious bias in travel time estimation using brand data and difficulties in establishing travel time relationship with existing data.
Section 5: Relationships to Other Projects
Other Current Projects Related to this Project (any funding source)
Funding Source Related ID Related Project Title Relationship
BPA 198810804 Streamnet (CIS/NED) Complementary. Adult escapement data used to monitor recovery and compliance with NOAA targets.
BPA 198910700 Statistical Support For Salmon Complementary. This project uses the analytical mark-recapture models developed for RM&E reporting.
BPA 198910800 Modeling & Eval Supp/Crisp Complementary. Analysis results from this project are used in the CRiSP modeling.
BPA 199601900 Technical Management Team (TMT Complementary. This project posts RM&E hydro results on the DART website for public access.
BPA 200207700 Estuary/Ocean Rme Support Complementary. Providing statistical consulting on RM&E designs based on experience from this project.
BPA 200300700 Lwr Col River/Est Eco Monitor Complementary. Providing statistical consulting on RM&E designs based on experience from this project.
Section 6: Biological Objectives
Biological Objectives of this Proposed Project There are no biological objectives associated with this proposal.
Section 7: Work Elements
Work Elements and Associated Biological Objectives
Work Element Name Work Element Title Description Start Date End Date Estimated Budget
1: Analyze/Interpret Data Provide RealTime Predictions Provide in-season, real-time forecasting of the outmigration status of a number of PIT-tagged and indexed smolts at dams on the Columbia, Snake and Mid-Columbia Rivers. Forecasts are provided on DART through the internet. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $324,063
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element
3: Analyze/Interpret Data Integration of Performance Measure Results Performance measures are required to accurately assess recovery progress. This work element provides internet access to performance measures and status and trends information, i.e., smolt survivals, travel times, enviromental (flow, temperature, and dissolved gas) targets and performance, adult migration and harvest, and habitat restoration. Summaries will be provided via the internet. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $832,760
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element
4: Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Provide statistical review of, or stat. assistance for, community research proposals This project provides independent statistical analysis of hydro operations, fish migrations, adult returns, flow augmentation, and salmonid recovery status. Activities include technical peer review of reports and study designs proposed for RM&E and evaluation of the efficiency, validity, and precision of proposed study designs. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $183,860
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element
5: Produce Annual Report Summarize Project Activities and Accomplishments Project activities and accoumplishments will be reported on an annual basis. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $43,598
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element
6: Manage and Administer Projects Produce Quarterly Report Quarterly reports will be submitted via PISCES documenting progress on project tasks. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $15,392
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element
7: Manage and Administer Projects Project Management This task provides for the management and adminstration of the project. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $57,172
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element
Section 8: Budget
Itemized Estimated Budget
Item Note FY 2007 Cost FY 2008 Cost FY 2009 Cost
Personnel Faculty, postdoctoral research assistant, professional staff, and graduate student $254,596 $262,233 $270,100
Fringe Benefits Faculty, postdoctoral research assistant, professional staff, and graduate student $65,951 $67,930 $69,968
Supplies Services, computer software, noncapital equipment replacements and upgrades $10,830 $10,830 $10,830
Travel Includes trips to Portland at request of sponsor and onsite visitor parking $3,107 $3,159 $3,211
Other Lease; project located off campus $40,404 $40,404 $40,404
Other Graduate operating fee $11,232 $11,457 $11,686
Overhead Facilities and administrative costs @ 25% $86,966 $89,479 $92,068
Totals $473,086 $485,492 $498,267
Total Estimated FY 2007-2009 Budgets
Total Itemized Budget$1,456,845
Total Work Element budget$1,456,845
Cost sharing
Funding Source or Organization Item or Service Provided FY 2007 Est Value ($) FY 2008 Est Value ($) FY 2009 Est Value ($) Cash or in-kind? Status
Section 9: Project Future
Project Future Costs and/or Termination
FY 2010 Est Budget FY 2011 Est Budget Comments
$511,222 $524,514 Estimates based on continuing objectives and tasks
Future Operations & Maintenance Costs
Objectives, work elements, and budgets may change depending on the results of the BiOp, Remand, RM&E check-ins, and recovery status of salmonid stocks in the Columbia Basin.
 
Termination Date Comments
None There will be continuing need for the statistical support provided by this project as long as the need for monitoring and evaluation of salmonid stocks and recovery plans continues in the Columbia Basin. In addition, this project provides real-time predictions for salmonid outmigrations and statistical support on regional fisheries issues.
 
Final Deliverables
Section 10: Narrative
Document Type Size Date
Narrative for proposal 199105100 doc 998 kb 1/10/2006
Part 2 of 2. Reviews of Proposal
Administrative Review Group (ARG) Results
Account Type:
Expense		 No changes were made to this proposal


NPCC Final Funding Recommendations (October 23, 2006) [Full NPCC Council Recs]
FY 2007 Budget
$414,388		 FY 2008 Budget
$414,388		 FY 2009 Budget
$414,388		 Total NPCC Rec
$1,243,164
Budget Type:Expense
Budget Category:Basinwide
Recommendation:Fund
Comments:


NPCC Draft Funding Recommendations (September 15, 2006) [Full NPCC Council Recs]
FY 2007 Budget
$414,388		 FY 2008 Budget
$414,388		 FY 2009 Budget
$414,388		 Total NPCC Rec
$1,243,163
FY 2007 MSRT Rec
$414,388		 FY 2008 MSRT Rec
$414,388		 FY 2009 MSRT Rec
$414,388		 Total MSRT Rec
$1,243,163
Budget Category:Basinwide
Comments:

Local or MSRT Comments: This project provides real time analysis to support DART. It appears that this project should be rolled into a single proposal with the other DART projects. This project is providing fish passage analysis and should be held to the same standards and oversight as described in the 2003 Mainstem Amendment for fish passage monitoring. It appears that some of the tasks within the project are duplicative of other fish passage monitoring, or are solely for BPA support. Tasks within the three fish passage monitoring projects (199105100, 199601900, and 200732100) need to be well coordinated to avoid duplication. This project should receive a slight increase (5%) to their FY 2006 budget level to support increased costs.


Independent Scientific Review Panel Final Review (August 31, 2006) [Download full document]
Recommendation: Fundable
NPCC Comments: This is a high priority project deserving support. The proposal provides an extensive background and justification of the technical and scientific background. The Fish and Wildlife Program (FWP) calls for status and trends monitoring for the hydrosystem, tributaries, estuary, and harvest. This project addresses these issues by providing in-season and post-season evaluation of smolt outmigration success, adult return information, stream escapement, habitat mitigation activities, and harvest.

There appears to be collaboration with a number of other projects (six BPA projects indicated), but linkage is only generally described.

The history is extremely well documented indicating significant benefits and accomplishments. Nevertheless the following comments from the most recent ISRP review still apply: “The main elements of the project are to provide real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing and to provide value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and investigating interrelationships. An additional element is to provide statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community on an as-needed basis. The response provides information on clients and contributions. The project provides a valuable service. The ISRP suggests that in the future a summary of the following be provided in support of proposals: 1) data on the amount and nature of use of electronic data and analyses posted on the web, 2) responses to satisfaction surveys by internet users, 3) number of requests for analyses and the time taken to respond to those requests.”

These comments are still applicable including the request for information concerning use and satisfaction by users. Only a response to (3)(the number of project requests and the number of hours spent in responding to those requests) was included in this proposal. It would still be useful to include recommendations # (1)&(2). The ISRP notes that such activities would also provide feedback for quality improvement of this ongoing project.


Independent Scientific Review Panel Preliminary Review (June 2, 2006) [Download full document]
Recommendation: Fundable
NPCC Comments: This is a high priority project deserving support. The proposal provides an extensive background and justification of the technical and scientific background. The Fish and Wildlife Program (FWP) calls for status and trends monitoring for the hydrosystem, tributaries, estuary, and harvest. This project addresses these issues by providing in-season and post-season evaluation of smolt outmigration success, adult return information, stream escapement, habitat mitigation activities, and harvest.

There appears to be collaboration with a number of other projects (six BPA projects indicated), but linkage is only generally described.

The history is extremely well documented indicating significant benefits and accomplishments. Nevertheless the following comments from the most recent ISRP review still apply: “The main elements of the project are to provide real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing and to provide value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and investigating interrelationships. An additional element is to provide statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community on an as-needed basis. The response provides information on clients and contributions. The project provides a valuable service. The ISRP suggests that in the future a summary of the following be provided in support of proposals: 1) data on the amount and nature of use of electronic data and analyses posted on the web, 2) responses to satisfaction surveys by internet users, 3) number of requests for analyses and the time taken to respond to those requests.”

These comments are still applicable including the request for information concerning use and satisfaction by users. Only a response to (3)(the number of project requests and the number of hours spent in responding to those requests) was included in this proposal. It would still be useful to include recommendations # (1)&(2). The ISRP notes that such activities would also provide feedback for quality improvement of this ongoing project.

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